STOP 24PROTECT SATURDAYSTHE BACKGROUND
Our research, historical comparisons and public commentary. Analysis below reflects earlier proposals and is not a description of an adopted 2027 format.
Take action now01 / THE SIZE OF THE CHANGE
Every additional entrant requires another elimination. A 24-team bracket adds 12 playoff games and, with eight first-round byes, a fifth round.
Single-elimination arithmetic: N teams require N − 1 games. The first-round bye structure is illustrative; a final 24-team format has not been adopted. See the calculation.
THE CASE FOR SATURDAYS
The cost of a loss is part of what makes college football gripping. An upset can change a season. A rivalry can close the door on a championship.
A larger field gives more teams a chance. It also gives the strongest teams more room to lose. We want qualification to remain something a team has to earn across the fall.
Keep the rivalries. Keep the stakes. Make the whole season count.
02 / LOOK AT THE RECORDS
Start with the teams at the edge of the field. These are the official final CFP rankings, before bowls and playoff games.
entries ranked 17–24 had
three or more losses.
teams in the final 2025 top 24
had three or more losses.
Records as published on 2025-12-07. This historical top-24 illustration does not apply future automatic bids, rerank teams or remove conference-title results. It is not a reconstruction of an adopted 24-team field. Methodology · Download all five seasons
Showing 8 teams for 2025. 9 of the top 24 had three or more losses.That includes good teams with difficult schedules. It also shows how much more forgiving qualification could become. These records describe the historical threshold; they do not predict future results.
Inspect all five source tables and the calculationTHE PLAYS WE STILL TALK ABOUT
Remember the catch. The kick. The inches. Then look at what the losing team would keep in a 24-team field.
The reported 23-at-large-plus-one model, with rankings used as a seed proxy: 1–8 get byes. 9–16 host Round 1. 17–24 travel. A ranking drop can still change opponents and the path to a title. But it does not always change whether a team qualifies, gets a bye or plays at home.
These are historical illustrations, not predicted committee seeds. Each comparison uses the last BCS or CFP ranking before the game and the first afterward, not necessarily the final selection ranking. The consequences shown apply to that snapshot; later games and selection rules could change the eventual bracket. The format has not been adopted. Read the proposal reporting.
2013 / Bye retained
A missed kick. A return for the ages. Alabama lost the Iron Bowl and ultimately missed the BCS title game.
Three ranking spots lost. A first-round bye retained.
2008 / Bye retained
One second left. Texas Tech handed Texas its only regular-season loss. The Longhorns ultimately finished third in the BCS and missed the title game.
From No. 1 to No. 4. Still a bye.
2021 / Bye to home game
Jairon McVea stopped Dezmon Jackson inches short. Oklahoma State lost the Big 12 title game and missed the four-team playoff.
Those inches would cost a bye, but leave a home playoff game.
2023 / Bye retained
Alabama ended Georgia’s 29-game winning streak in the SEC championship. Georgia finished sixth and missed the four-team playoff.
Five ranking spots lost. Still a first-round bye.
2007 / Bye to home game
Pitt’s upset kept West Virginia out of the BCS championship game. A season one win from a title-game berth ended in the Fiesta Bowl.
A title-game door closes in reality. In this model: a bye becomes a home game.
2020 / Bye retained
Marco Wilson’s shoe toss extended LSU’s late scoring drive. Florida lost 37–34 and later missed the four-team playoff.
One ranking spot. The same first-round bye.
2010 / Bye to home game
Nevada ended Boise State’s unbeaten season after missed field goals in regulation and overtime. Boise State did not reach a BCS bowl.
A lost bye, followed by a home playoff game.
2011 / Bye retained
Iowa State won in double overtime. Oklahoma State later recovered to BCS No. 3, but missed the two-team championship game.
The immediate drop: two ranking spots. Still a bye.
2012 / Bye retained
Stanford won in overtime, ending Oregon’s unbeaten run. Oregon ultimately finished fourth in the BCS and missed the championship game.
Three ranking spots lost. Still a bye.
2018 / Bye retained
Georgia’s SEC championship loss left the Bulldogs one spot outside the four-team playoff.
One ranking spot. The same bye.
2019 / Bye to home game
Auburn won 48–45. Alabama took its second loss and ultimately missed the four-team playoff.
A bye becomes a home first-round game.
2021 / Bye retained
Michigan’s first win in The Game since 2011 knocked Ohio State out of the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes missed the four-team playoff.
Five ranking spots lost. Still a bye.
2022 / Bye to home game
Jayden Daniels found Mason Taylor for the overtime winner. Alabama took its second loss and eventually finished fifth, outside the playoff.
The bye goes. The home playoff game stays.
2023 / Bye retained
Michigan won 30–24. Ohio State missed the Big Ten championship and ultimately the four-team playoff.
Four ranking spots lost. Still a bye.
2024 / Bye retained
Michigan won 13–10. Ohio State still made the 12-team playoff and won the national title, but had to play in the first round.
Under this 24-team model, No. 6 would instead get a bye.
2024 / Home game retained
Florida handed Ole Miss its third loss. The Rebels ultimately finished 14th and missed the 12-team playoff.
A home first-round seed becomes another home first-round seed.
2024 / Bye to home game
Syracuse rallied to win 42–38. Miami missed the ACC championship and ultimately finished 13th, outside the 12-team playoff.
A lost bye. A home playoff game instead.
Videos load from YouTube only when you press play. If an uploader blocks embedded playback, use “Watch on YouTube.” Rivalries, conference titles and the joy of an upset still matter. This comparison focuses on national-title qualification and first-round advantages.
03 / AUDIENCE & EVIDENCE
average viewers per
Nielsen-rated FBS broadcast
First four weeks of 2026 vs. 2025
Front Office Sports reported an early-season decline. That is a reason to question assumptions about audience demand, not proof that expansion caused it.
Front Office Sports (opens in a new tab)Comparison: the first four weeks of each season, as reported September 30. Matchups, networks, time slots, competing programming and measurement methods can affect averages. The 2025 opening weekend had four games above 10 million viewers, a demanding comparison. This is an average per broadcast, not total viewing hours or a full-season verdict.
A 2014 study in the Journal of Sports Economics modeled championship suspense using historical college football data. Its results favored a smaller postseason: lost regular-season suspense outweighed postseason gains within that model.
The study examined 2-, 4-, 8- and 16-team formats, before today’s conferences and playoff. It did not estimate a causal TV-ratings effect of expanding from 12 to 24. A separate 2023 simulation study examined the tradeoff between admitting contenders and introducing more game-result randomness. Neither establishes the audience outcome of this proposal.
Olson & Stone, 2014 (opens in a new tab) Muller, Hood & Sokol, 2023 (opens in a new tab)04 / THE CALENDAR HAS LIMITS
Conference championship games are part of the discussion.
Dellenger reports that officials are weighing their removal, with at least roughly $250 million in revenue to replace. His proposed first round begins two weeks after the regular season, leaving the title-game weekend open.
Army–Navy could move into that opening. Selection timing and the bowls remain unresolved.
Read the original reporting (opens in a new tab)Illustrative sequence, not an adopted schedule. Eight first-round byes are assumed for 24 teams.
THE COLLATERAL DAMAGE
At FCS scale, one lost check can reach far beyond football.
Expansion talks include a reported requirement for 10 power-level opponents. That could squeeze scheduling space. It does not establish a ban on FCS games: losing these paydays is a risk to examine, not an adopted consequence of 24 teams. Yahoo Sports; accessible syndicated copy at AOL (opens in a new tab)
HERO Sports lists payouts for 98 games; 29 lack published figures. Figures describe scheduled contracts, not verified receipts. HERO Sports (opens in a new tab) Opta Analyst (opens in a new tab)
IF ALL THESE GAMES DISAPPEARED
That is a gross-revenue scenario: extend the disclosed average of about $438,000 across all 127 games. It is an estimate, not a forecast of what expansion will remove.
Among disclosed contracts, 39 schools have at least $500,000 scheduled; 15 have at least $700,000; three reach $1 million.
See the calculation and its limitsTHE FCS BUDGET REALITY
The NCAA’s 2024 FCS medians: $6.08 million in generated revenue and $25.48 million in athletics expenses. All but one department spent more than it generated.
Institutional support and student fees help fill the gap. A lost guarantee can mean pressure for more subsidy or fewer resources across the department.
NCAA financial report (opens in a new tab)Howard: $1 million scheduled from Indiana and Rutgers. Norfolk State: $720,000 from Virginia and Old Dominion. These HBCU examples show how quickly two contracts add up. HERO Sports (opens in a new tab)
Guarantee income enters an athletics budget. If it disappears without replacement, the pressure can reach scholarships, trainers, recruiting, travel and sports that generate little revenue themselves. Some vulnerable football programs could face reclassification or closure, but the evidence does not support a count—or claims that half of FCS will disappear.
Before rewriting the schedule, account for the departments that depend on it.
05 / PUBLIC VOICES
These are public comments about expansion. None of the people below is being represented as a STOP 24 endorser.
I think 24 is preposterous and 16 is bordering on it.
Speaking on The Next Round about further CFP expansion.
Read in context (opens in a new tab)The regular season in this sport is the most valuable commodity we have.
Arguing against a 24-team playoff on his show.
Read in context (opens in a new tab)Can’t tell you how much I hate the CFP going to 24 teams.
A public reaction to the expansion reporting.
Read in context (opens in a new tab)A TRADEOFF EVEN SUPPORTERS ACKNOWLEDGE
Smart said expansion can make some games “less meaningful,” while also saying they “still matter in the grand scheme of things.” He favors more than 12 teams. His comments belong in the debate with that context intact.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (opens in a new tab)On ESPN’s Get Up, Greenberg raised the hypothetical of teams protecting players for the postseason during a rivalry game. That is his warning about incentives, not evidence that teams have decided to rest starters.
Awful Announcing / ESPN Get Up (opens in a new tab)06 / TAKE THE OTHER SIDE SERIOUSLY
More access has real appeal. The disagreement is about what the sport gives up to get it.
A larger bubble gives more fan bases a reason to follow November games.
That benefit is real. The tradeoff is a bigger cushion for the strongest programs. The question is how much jeopardy to remove from the games that already draw the largest audiences.
Home playoff games reward fans, bring visitors to college towns and create new television inventory.
Those games have value. Leaders should weigh it against the regular-season stakes and conference championships that may be traded away to fit the bracket.
A team can lose several games and still be capable of beating anyone in December.
Of course it can. The campaign’s objection is about how much a season should earn. Being capable of a title run and having earned a place in one are different standards.
More room for losses could make schools more willing to schedule difficult nonconference games.
It could. That outcome depends on selection rules and scheduling commitments. Expanding the bracket alone does not require anybody to book a tougher opponent.
The FCS championship demonstrates that a 24-team football tournament can be played.
The logistical precedent is valid. The 2026 FCS field includes 10 automatic berths, compared with one reserved Group of Six berth in the reported FBS proposal. The FBS also has a different bowl and conference-title calendar.
NCAA.com (opens in a new tab)Supporters, including Kirby Smart, see playoff access as more valuable than many non-CFP bowls.
That is a reason to improve the postseason. It still leaves a choice about how much qualification should demand. Expanding access also moves the cutoff; it cannot eliminate every disputed selection.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (opens in a new tab)07 / HOW WE GOT HERE
The national title runs through two semifinals and a championship.
Source (opens in a new tab)Twelve teams compete in the first expanded CFP.
Source (opens in a new tab)Dellenger’s chronology: the Big Ten advances 24, blocks 16 in January, and the ACC, Big 12 and Notre Dame move toward 24 in March.
Source (opens in a new tab)Sankey backs a more measured approach and raises concerns about title-game revenue.
Source (opens in a new tab)The CFP opens its ESPN window. Dellenger reports new SEC conditions, including 10 power-conference opponents per team.
Source (opens in a new tab)CFP leaders meet. The official statement says no commitment to expand has been made.
Source (opens in a new tab)Next steps depend on the negotiations. This date does not itself enact expansion.
Source (opens in a new tab)